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| 3Q2018: "The Price of Stability."; Normalcy returns to the markets as Libya turns Kemalist. Trouble arises in the Horn of Africa | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jun 15 2018, 10:33 PM (73 Views) | |
| Cloud Strife | Jun 15 2018, 10:33 PM Post #1 |
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Longshanks II
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German silence and British recklessness combine to provide an opening for the French to fill with their influence. Through joint-central bank action President Macron's 'Blue/Red Bond Scheme' becomes adopted by the ECB; this was summarized by Macron as, "[creating] two different sovereign assets for two different objectives. First, the Blue Bond would make the lion's share of sovereign borrowing in the euro area more affordable (up to the Maastricht debt limit of 60 percent of GDP) by creating an asset that satisfies the demand for super safe and ultra liquid investment opportunities, including from Asian central banks and other large investors looking for super safe assets. Second, the Red Bond would make borrowing more expensive at the margin, especially for countries pursuing unsustainable fiscal policies or lacking fiscal credibility, thereby reinforcing the rules-based Stability and Growth Pact through market signals.This would allow for countries to get pay off and offload what is known as 'toxic' or 'black' debt and through doing so have a large portion of their debt converted to very low interest, triple AAA bonds. With proper budget planning this will likely improve their credit rating for their national tranche debt for those countries experiencing the greatest interest rates currently. " No one quite understands how the form and function of the polices but the markets nevertheless react positively to such news as it distracts them from having to deal with the weightier issues of Italian debt and British economic policy towards the US dollar. With the US Congress almost at the point clawing back areas of trade policy Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative, has informed President Trump that there is no political room to implement to reciprocal tariffs policy on his own but that EU representatives are willing to revive talks for a formal US-EU Free Trade Agreement in the upcoming weeks. This served as more good news for the markets and slowly during the course of the end of the second quarter, finances rebounded to pre-crisis levels across the world. Unfortunately, the belt-tightening and budget planning measures de facto required by the Blue Bond's promise to be "AAA" rated debt has ushered in a new wave of Populism across Europe. --- Immigration remains the number one culprit to blame for economic troubles throughout Europe. In Italy, Five Star dominated regions have begun to take advantage of the central government's reluctance to allow refugees. With the tacit acceptance of the central government and overt help of Malta, the waves of migrants heading towards the Italian peninsula have been deflected back towards the Libyan coast and illegal migrants of all stripes, no matter what their origins, are being rounded up and dumped on the shores of that North African country. A strange alliance of Southern European Populists, local organized crime, and Eastern European governments have begun to process of removing migrant labor out of Europe. Against the backdrop of several weeks of complete economic shambles humanitarian groups have had no ready audience willing to mobilize to stop such mass deportations. In Libya, this new wave of "returnees" from various ethnic backgrounds originating from North Africa and the Middle East have developed both open hostility to the prevailing ideologies that governed their home countries respectively. Instead of Arab Secularism, Political Islam, or Western Democracy these returnees have adopted an even more toxic mixture of "5 Star"-esque Populism--now tailored for migrant opinion--and the Kemalist social theories becoming popular in Turkey in the aftermath of the AKP's fall from power. They have joined with local Libyans to seize weapons caches from the Islamist and Secular militias that he that dominated the political scene and using their know-how and manpower have begun to establish what one figure prominent in the so-called "Phoenix Movement" the foundations for a "People's Republic of the Greater Maghreb." The instability caused by the returnees have rocked most of Saharan Africa and is now entered into the Horn of Africa; a disproportionate number of migrant peoples removed from Europe had been Eritreans feeling from the grip of dictatorship. Known as Africa's North Korea, Eritrea has been in the grip of a one-party dictatorship since gaining independence from Ethiopia. The new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has ambitions to build a naval force for the land locked country and returning Eritreans migrants and their cries for help have provided him an excuse to prepare for a large scale intervention in Eritrea. With the Saudis distracted by their operations in Yemen and the rest of the world recovering from the United Kingdom's strange decision to weaponize debt, the Ethiopians feel this is the right time to act on their ambitions without the rest of the world intervening to stop them. |
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The Republic of China | |
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| Cloud Strife | Jun 28 2018, 04:06 AM Post #2 |
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Longshanks II
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--Update-- As some degree of calm returns to Europe, populist movements are suffering in support from the economic uptick; in particular, populism in Italy. With the economy riding high and the refugee crisis abating, Lega 'Nord' and 5 Star's divergent domestic priorities have begun to rattle Italian confidence in government to new lows. In a poll published by the Corriere della Sera, if a new election were called no current party would command more than 18% of the total national vote, with a surprise 11% going to the 'Monarchist National Party'; an entity which technically does not exist outside of 'meme' posts in Italian social media. The historical Monarchist National Party was an early competitor to the formerly ruling Christian Democratic Party that dissolved early in the Italian Republic's history, its successor parties ended up merging into what is currently Forza Italia. Analysts attribute revived support for monarchism as one-part protest vote and one-part complete dissatisfaction with the current Italian political spectrum, which runs the gamut from fascists to eurocommunists. |
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The Republic of China | |
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3:43 AM Jul 11