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| Gordon Brown's position on a knife edge | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jun 3 2009, 02:51 PM (1,076 Views) | |
| zzFarrfin | Jun 3 2009, 02:51 PM Post #1 |
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More a topic for my British compatriots perhaps, but it seems that Gordon Brown's position as Prime Minister is looking very precarious. After Communities Secretary Hazel Blears quits and Home Secretary Jacqui Smith stepping down, that's two members of the Cabinet leaving. There are rumours floating around that Alastair Darling has said he'd quit if he was removed as Chancellor too, which would probably mean it was the end for Brown. A lot will be based on the European Parliament election results (voting is tomorrow, btw, so remember to vote!) but if they're as bad as some are predicting then a Cabinet or backbench coup is also possible. So... will Brown bounce back once again? Or is it really the end of the road? |
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| zzmaikeru | Jun 3 2009, 03:39 PM Post #2 |
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Parliamentary politics are so damn confusing. |
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| zzcrackzilla | Jun 3 2009, 03:52 PM Post #3 |
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What the hell is a cabinet coup? And what is a backbench? |
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| zzmaikeru | Jun 3 2009, 04:12 PM Post #4 |
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Well I know that backbenchers are just party members not on the cabinet (or, for the opposition, not on the shadow cabinet, correct?). As to a cabinet coup, I have no idea. Nor a backbench coup, though I'd assume the latter means that the rest of Labour would support a motion of no confidence. |
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| Recon | Jun 3 2009, 04:23 PM Post #5 |
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A cabinet coup is the same thing, as which happened to Thatcher in 1990. It’s when the Cabinet shows no confidence in the Prime Minister. So they tell the PM if he needs to take a vote of no confidence they will not back him. That’s basically his political death. The UK Cabinet is truly a cabinet of rivals and people like Alan Johnson the Health Secretary want to move up to the Prime Minister slot. So there is always that fear if you are the Prime Minister that your Chancellor will stab you in the back. Jackie Smith preparing to stand down and Hazel Blears resigning is a major threat to Brown. Smith after her husband claimed porn movies as expenses from public funds was a woman with a target on her back so her going is expected. Blears is a lot more interesting, she has been up until now quite a spokesperson for the government. If they had a very difficult week it would be Blears on Question Time defending the government. Brown caused her to go, by condemning her and letting other ministers like James Purnell off with no punishment for the exact same expenses claims. Brown shown a double standard and picking Blears to make an example of has backfired. It’s the EU elections in the UK tomorrow. Tonight’s news has nothing but Blears resignation. Labour should get hammered and Brown is looking shaky. Saying that he is a man who has been on the edge before and survived. Ok onto “Backbenches”. They are Members of Parliament without any ministerial post. I think the government may have 50-60 posts. Junior ministers etc, we have 646 MPs and Labour have around 350. So those 300 others are MPs outside the government and in the party. Some are old labour (Trade unions) many are Blairites, a lot want Brown gone because 1. They dislike him and his governing style or 2. They believe if he is leader they will lose their seats at the next election. Brown needs a majority to pass his governments legislation. If backbenchers rebel, as they did over the Gurkhas then Brown cannot govern. So as expenses are wrecking the moral authority of the Commons, a lot of Mps will be looking at the current election prospects and think they don’t have a chance. Might be more open to backing Brown or at worst backing perhaps Alan Johnson until June 2010, so they have a better chance of re-election. Cameron looks a shoe in now. Brown for now will survive. On Friday the picture will be clearer and the Labour party before their next conference will be looking at their chances. Can we win with Brown? Or will it be so bad that they say, how many seats can we save without Brown? I am going to vote tomorrow. For our federalist overlords in Brussels! |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| Recon | Jun 3 2009, 04:26 PM Post #6 |
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Backbenchers can represent all parties. If your not a member of the Cabinet, the Shadow Cabinet or the Liberal Democrats frontbench team you are a backbencher. Good on you Maik. |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 3 2009, 04:38 PM Post #7 |
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That's sort of what makes it so fascinating ![]() Recon has explained it pretty comprehensively, though. One of two ways could be used to get rid of Brown: 1) A Cabinet coup. Members of the Cabinet approach the Prime Minister and basically tell him that his time is up. If he doesn't resign, they will themselves resign en masse (which in turn will see the collapse of the government). It's especially dangerous if Brown loses support of the big three Cabinet members (Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary). 2) A backbench rebellion. Backbench MPs in the Labour Party (that is, those who are just ordinary members of the legislature without having government jobs) force an internal leadership contest for a new Labour Party leader, forcing Brown from office if he loses (since he is appointed as Prime Minister on the basis that he commands a majority in Parliament, i.e. he is the leader of the party with the largest number of seats). If he loses his job as Leader of the Labour Party, he's compelled to resign his post as Prime Minister too. If he's removed, I think it'll be down to backbench rebels rather than the Cabinet (at least initially; the Cabinet may step in at a later stage). Though it's hard to say whether he'll actually go until we get some idea of the European election results... |
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| Recon | Jun 3 2009, 05:20 PM Post #8 |
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It seems Brown is up shit creek. Cabinet Ministers like David Miliband the Foreign Secretary has told Brown he is very happy where he is at the moment and would not like to be changed. So Brown it seems has lost that great power of been able to reshuffle his cabinet after a loss and try and start all over again. It seems if Newsnight is right, that many ministers are telling Brown either to keep them in their current jobs or they will resign as well… Good work Farffin! |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 3 2009, 05:33 PM Post #9 |
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I'm reluctant to write him off completely just yet, but it does look very grim. Brown has made a comeback two or three times so far, and I wouldn't necessarily say it's beyond him to do it again. Having said that, his survival chances look pretty slim. It'd have to be something pretty radical and unexpected to save him. Miliband has said he's happy where he is, and Darling has apparently said that he'll resign from the Cabinet if he's removed as Chancellor (even if he's made Home Secretary instead). Thus Brown has a very, very difficult series of decisions to make. His performance at Prime Minister's Questions today was unusually good, but it alone won't be enough to save him. |
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| Recon | Jun 3 2009, 05:42 PM Post #10 |
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Brown is like Rasputin it seems he has quite a few lives. I think the election results and the reaction will be crucial, by Monday we should know. There is talk of MP's handing around a letter asking for signatures to be sent to Brown for his resignation. Here's a good line by Vince Cable. A bit old now however it still speaks loudly to Gordon Brown. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9ZErdQy96U |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 3 2009, 05:57 PM Post #11 |
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There is indeed a letter circulating amongst the Parliamentary Labour Party (as well as more ministers apparently preparing to resign). According to The Times, the letter reads:
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| zzBugs | Jun 3 2009, 06:00 PM Post #12 |
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I think this is about the middle of the end for Brown. Like Farrfin said, he's not completely KO'd yet, until he looses the support of those Ministers. Brown is in a tight spot, because there isn't enough support for Conservatives, but Brown is looking equally foolish at the moment, and there is no way MP's too interested in making sure they hold their constituencies will tolerate it for long. I'd put odds on the MP's fully rebelling before the Ministers resign though. Brown has options to choose from to replace those cabinet spots. He'd be pretty stupid to take people out of what they probably do best, or prefer to do. Since he would loose effectiveness that way. There is a reason you would put someone more seasoned on finances, and keep him there, as opposed to forcing that member to deal with a whole new set of issues, like security. |
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| Recon | Jun 3 2009, 06:08 PM Post #13 |
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Well Darling has been caught up in the expenses row and frankly Brown been able to fill Cabinet spot could become a problem. The Home Office has been a bit of a poisoned chalice of late. Maybe Purnell might take it as a young guy trying to get a big cabinet position behind him for a later run at the leadership. The real problem with any Chancellor in Browns government is that they are serving a man who sat in Number 11 for 10 years. He knows what he wants and knows exactly when they are dicking him around. Its more been Browns puppet then the second most powerful man in the country… |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzskylar | Jun 3 2009, 06:13 PM Post #14 |
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HARRIET HARMAN FOR PRIME MINISTER ZOMG LULZ!!!!
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 3 2009, 06:26 PM Post #15 |
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I'd vote for her!* [size0]*If I was beaten, tortured and dragged to a polling booth and forced to vote with a gun pointed at my head. Then I'd consider it. On a serious note, Brown's options are very limited. There just aren't a lot of people who have the experience or the grassroots support to serve in the Cabinet. He's in a bind, that's for certain. As Recon said, by Monday I think it'll be clearer as to whether Brown will stay or go. Though I think he'll have to be pushed; this is a guy who wanted to be Prime Minister for a long time, and he isn't going to give the job up without a fight. |
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| zzmorty | Jun 3 2009, 08:55 PM Post #16 |
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Not that my (American) opinion matters much, but I'm rooting for a big UKIP victory in these elections. |
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| zzbobpalindrome | Jun 4 2009, 02:02 AM Post #17 |
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EUL-NGL, or failing that, PES, baby I feel bad for Brown because he inherited some of Blair's bad decisions, but then again, Brown is not radically different from Blair and they're both Nu Labour |
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 4 2009, 02:32 AM Post #18 |
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The thing is, Brown can hardly insist on loyalty from his colleagues. He and his supporters undermined Blair a lot during his decade in office, so Brown has made it difficult for himself to demand loyalty now that he's in office. |
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| zzgoodie | Jun 4 2009, 06:02 AM Post #19 |
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*Goodie sits here wondering what he's gotten himself into.* |
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| zzBugs | Jun 4 2009, 01:29 PM Post #20 |
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No...your good for now. Ish. I honestly think that most parliamentary or even democratic nations would be awesome to play on this game. Namely for shit like this. Like, bickering and all that is a nonstop thing. And the thing is, is you can have moments like "oooo....he just went there." and really, it's all just political. It's not like a coup or anything, it's just political fun. It's not completely clean. But it's not like a coup is trying to establish itself to take over. It's more of a mind game rather than a physical one. Unlike dictatorships and military juntas and all that, that have to establish themselves by force. That being said. Do what's right and get rid of Brown Cameron for UK by 2010 <_< |
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 4 2009, 04:07 PM Post #21 |
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It's just been announced that James Purnell, the Work and Pensions Secretary, has resigned and made it clear that he thinks Gordon Brown should step down. This obviously makes Brown's survival even less likely. This time next week, we may be in the early days of a Labour leadership election. |
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| zzBugs | Jun 4 2009, 05:10 PM Post #22 |
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Or loss of power
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| Recon | Jun 4 2009, 06:02 PM Post #23 |
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Edging closer. Purnell is a fool to do this. He will be seen as the executioner. Heseltine didn’t take the leadership in 1990. Purnell is a slimy bastard, new labour Blair arselicker, and a man who wants the PM job. If Brown survives this Purnell is going to disappear from the Labour party. Quite rightly. Lets see these EU results and we will know. Brown is a powerful man in the Labour Party, he’s spent years as the heir apparent telling MPs “Don’t cross me” now. Brown will resign only if he chooses to go, Parliament will not get enough Labour MPs for a vote of no confidence even to be tabled, and the cabinet, well Purnell would have been smarter to speak out as a minister, not just resign. Brown is going to be have to be careful this week. He’s walking on a political minefield. |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| Recon | Jun 4 2009, 06:03 PM Post #24 |
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Vince Cable for Supreme Leader!
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzskylar | Jun 4 2009, 06:35 PM Post #25 |
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David Cameron for PM William Hague for Foreign Secretary Vince Cable for Chancellor of the Exchequer Harriet Harman for Lead Bench Clown |
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| zzBugs | Jun 4 2009, 06:42 PM Post #26 |
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Skylar seems to have the best compromise
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| Recon | Jun 4 2009, 06:47 PM Post #27 |
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Cameron? Bah. What a horrible man. This is David Cameron. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TJQ8RxzUgI...e=related&pos=1 Jack Straw for PM William Hague for Foreign Secretary (What a unusual voice he has. He would be great across the world.) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZO9BHGNtiok Vince Cable for Chancellor of the Exchequer Jacki Smith for Leader of the Whorehouse (Parliament) She already has the experience... |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzskylar | Jun 5 2009, 12:00 AM Post #28 |
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I still think that this is William Hague at his best. Hell, if anybody, we should try to have Joseph Hand as PM. |
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| Stoklomolvi | Jun 5 2009, 12:46 AM Post #29 |
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ALBERT INKPIN for UK PM!!!! |
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 5 2009, 04:33 AM Post #30 |
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Some interesting developments. Alan Johnson (former Health Secretary) moving to the Home Office, Defence Secretary John Hutton has resigned and Alastair Darling to stay on as Chancellor. If the reshuffle goes as planned, Brown might be safe from a Cabinet revolt. There's still a threat from the backbenches, though. |
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| zzguntrip | Jun 5 2009, 04:45 AM Post #31 |
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Alistar Darling. Soon to be ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer. :lol: We can only dream. |
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 5 2009, 04:51 AM Post #32 |
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Nope, it's confirmed that he's staying as Chancellor. And to be perfectly honest, if I had to choose between Alastair Darling and George Osborne I'd definitely choose Darling. Having said that, I think Vince Cable is the best man for the job
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| zzguntrip | Jun 5 2009, 04:54 AM Post #33 |
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My Mum's an accountant. Let her do it
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| Recon | Jun 5 2009, 07:51 AM Post #34 |
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I will admit, this is fantastic. However “Joseph Hand” now is a slur against the British people.
Seems Brown has swallowed his ambitions and played it safe. For Darling it’s a kick in the balls, Brown has been spreading rumours he would be leaving, but after Darling told him he would not accept another post it seems Brown had no choice. Alan Johnson might do some good as Home Secretary. If he gets through this year without scandal he could have a good career. John Hutton has resigned however made every effort to stress he was resigning and still supported Brown so that doesn’t seem a problem. Brown looks safer then yesterday however the EU elections result on Sunday and the Local council elections today will give more light.
Careful, you might just get what you ask for |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzguntrip | Jun 5 2009, 09:43 AM Post #35 |
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She always says about anything like that, if she did that in her job, she'd have been fired 100 times over. She even checks her colleagues expenses
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| Recon | Jun 5 2009, 09:58 AM Post #36 |
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SELF REGULATION! She's an MP! Thomas Harman I presume? Its true lots of people would have been fired over that shit. Its just we have no ability to get rid of a MP unless they are convicted of a crime. In America you can get impeached, we need something similar. Saying that if we did we would have about 60% of Parliament up in By-elections… |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzmaikeru | Jun 5 2009, 10:01 AM Post #37 |
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Impeachment isn't for members of the legislature, and it's really only the process of charging one with wrongdoing ("high crimes and misdemeanors"). It's not actually the process of convicting and removing the public official for those crimes. But Congress can also remove its members for any reason through something like a 3/4 vote. |
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| Recon | Jun 5 2009, 10:22 AM Post #38 |
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Oh well. That won't work here. More then 25% of Mps have done expenses claims. |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| Recon | Jun 5 2009, 11:26 AM Post #39 |
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Caroline Flint has resigned from Government. Shame she’s the best-looking woman in the Cabinet… She was Europe Minister. Some irony there… ![]() Can’t tell you any more. No one has any news on this at all. So need to wait I guess. Tony McNulty may have resigned just now… |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzFarrfin | Jun 5 2009, 11:38 AM Post #40 |
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Flint said she was supporting Gordon Brown last night. Today she quits and criticises Brown. I think she's critically reduced the impact of her resignation by flip-flopping over support. Things are still very shaky, though. |
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9:39 AM Jul 11