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| Gunfire Erupts at Pro-Reform Rally in Tehran; Hmm | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jun 15 2009, 01:08 PM (741 Views) | |
| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 15 2009, 01:08 PM Post #1 |
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Senior Warrant Officer
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8101098.stm http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,526363,00.html http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-06...-election_N.htm hrmm... Emperor Palpatine is pleased. So, how bad do you think it's gonna get gents? |
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| Recon | Jun 15 2009, 01:48 PM Post #2 |
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The Village Kvetch
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Its not going to go Iranian revolution bad I think. Even the reform groups believe in the revolution. The crazy President isn't even in charge really. So this just doesn't have the workings of a revolution. The Supreme Leader can come in and sort it if its really needed. |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzmaikeru | Jun 15 2009, 01:51 PM Post #3 |
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This is the climax. It will seem pretty hot at first, and you're wondering if it will get better, but instead it's just going to die down over time, leaving both sides as they were before, but with the pro-Mousavi supporters fulfilled that they've let loose all those sticky, warm feelings of discontent. |
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| zzBugs | Jun 15 2009, 02:26 PM Post #4 |
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Eh...maybe a couple more gunfire eruptions like this within the week. Unless everyone learned their lesson to not mess with the Emperor. Depending on whether this quashes the hopes of the pro reform, we will see. I think if they hold another rally, that would say that, yeah, they aren't worried about the persecution part for now. |
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 15 2009, 04:02 PM Post #5 |
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eh - I didn't mean to imply my thinking of it turning really bloody or anything. I'm happy to see that the pro-Mousavi group is relatively peaceful albeit a few fires, and that the pro-Fuckamijad group is the only one thus far to commit this kind of violence. It goes to prove the difference between the two - and I know that Mousavi would rather have his camp remain peaceful, as well as his supporters. The Supreme Leader has apparently called for an investigation into the Fraud allegations, but I already know it isn't going to include anything really - if it's fraud, he already knows. Most likely, obviously, doesn't seem to care either. Just so long whoever is the leader goes the path he's happy with, which sadly seems the President from before the election (and currently still is the President) seems to be pleasing him just right so far. |
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| Recon | Jun 15 2009, 04:55 PM Post #6 |
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The Village Kvetch
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Firstly it’s a militia, which opened fire not any police or security forces. At the moment it seems Students and the Internet are the heart of this movement. A Mousavi representative claims (I just saw this on TV, the interview), that Mousavi got a call from the Elections office and the Office of the Supreme Leader, telling him he won and he should draft a victory speech. Then a few hours later a few senior revolutionary guards officers turn up and tell him that his victory is not the right direction for Iran and that the Supreme Leader did not recognise it. As far as I am concerned unless Iran is full of idiots its unlikely. Student revolution, quickly going out of control... If the Iranian government the very same people that only 30 years ago were protesting can’t control this they are idiots. They should be able to control it. I mean Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of the students at the US embassy crisis. |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 15 2009, 04:58 PM Post #7 |
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Sauce on all of what has been said? I'm interested in reading. |
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| Recon | Jun 15 2009, 05:25 PM Post #8 |
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The Village Kvetch
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Wait until its loaded up then watch it on the I player! http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/newsnight |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 15 2009, 05:42 PM Post #9 |
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Not available outside the UK it says. |
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 15 2009, 05:42 PM Post #10 |
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Then again, I could use a proxy. |
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| Stoklomolvi | Jun 15 2009, 06:10 PM Post #11 |
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Ahmadenijaaaaaddd!!! |
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| zzskylar | Jun 15 2009, 08:27 PM Post #12 |
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Isn't it funny that his name could be thought of as "Ahmad in Jihad"? |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 16 2009, 12:36 AM Post #13 |
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The Creator
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I have a whole load of articles I have been posting on my facebook. There is a whole range of things that could happen. What we are looking at right now is the potential for a clerical power struggle. Mousavi has carefully played a few cards that essentially say Khameini is not a credible leader. Rafsanjani, a powerful opponent of Ahmadinejad, has criticized Ahmadinejad a lot before the election. There is speculation that Rafsanjani and his allies will attempt to oust Khameini. With the investigation, Khameini is stuck between a rock and a hard place: let it go through and show that he is not infallible or crush the opposition and risk the power struggles as well as the very real possibility of the regime collapsing. Legitimacy is one of the legal tenders when it comes to government. Without it, governments collapse. The ruling clerics are losing legitimacy. @Recon: They only pay lip service to the Revolution. That's the only way you can have any public legitimacy. The majority of the country would kick it out if given the chance and shown it would work. This "he has no power" myth needs to stop. The President has a lot of power. The mullahs are guardians. They try not to interfere, but sort of nudge things in the "right" direction. The president is free to pursue a lot: he could have slowed or stopped the nuclear program. He could have accelerated it (he did). He could be vicious against the US or he could be docile (Khatami). The source of this myth is the combination of a very complicated and tangled political system and the actions of the regime, as well as Western propaganda. @Maik: You do not know that. There is no precedent except 1979, which does not quite count. This is not like China (has a huge military and population) or Zimbabwe (is not really a country). Iranians have strong national pride and history that creates the foundation for strong opposition. Iran is one of like five Islamic nations that have any semblance of democracy. The others are pretty much fake nations. Iraq is not a nation and never will be. Turkey is a nation and has been for centuries. |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 16 2009, 02:03 AM Post #14 |
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The Creator
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If Ahmadinejad doesnt make the runoff, it give a good reason to rig the hell out of the votes. I'm not going to say these are accurate at all because I am doubtful that Karoubi got that much. If he did there would be different protests and more of a narrative about how Kerroubi supporters are involved. Link |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| Greece (TheOne) | Jun 16 2009, 03:44 AM Post #15 |
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I wonder how long it will take for Ahmadinijad to accuse the west of being behind the protests. |
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| Recon | Jun 16 2009, 06:08 AM Post #16 |
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I know the reformers in a completely democratic society would not be involved in the revolution. But it’s not a fully democratic society is it? As far as any of these groups are concerned they want to reform “within” the current system not the system itself. While the President may have power he’s more like “Unlike many other countries, in Iran the president does not have full control over foreign policy, the armed forces, or the nuclear policy of the Iranian state, which are under the control of the Supreme Leader” We all get that only the Supreme Leader truly is in power and he lets the President have a lax leash to get on with the job. But its quite clear even if Mousavi wins that he will have to be careful not to take on the mullahs. |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| Recon | Jun 16 2009, 06:09 AM Post #17 |
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He’s just banned “Western News Crews” from filming “Unauthorised” demonstrations lol. |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| zzJJ | Jun 16 2009, 09:12 AM Post #18 |
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And banned foreign news on television... |
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| zzLyly | Jun 16 2009, 09:16 AM Post #19 |
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According to the Washington Journal on CSPAN, lots of web sites and text messaging have been banned to try to keep people from organizing protests. Interestingly enough though, they've not yet banned Twitter. |
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 16 2009, 11:42 AM Post #20 |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSgGXMuqJlE |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 16 2009, 11:53 AM Post #21 |
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The Creator
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Because that is all they are able to reform for now. The ultimate goal is to institute a complete republic.
No it is not. Just because the Presidents generally agree with the Supreme Leader does not mean the Supreme Leader controls everything. The Queen could do whatever the hell she wanted if she wanted, but mostly she sits on her bum. A better statement would be "The president is guided by the Supreme Leader, who can also veto any laws." or something like that. There's no "You do this. You do that." Mousavi has at least the power Khatami had and he had quite a bit to reform things like opening up society, the media, and nearly opening ties with the US. Also, Ayatollah Rafsanjani has been lightly throwing out challenges to Ahmadinejad and Khameini and there is a plausible scenario of him removing Mr. Khameini. He may also make himself the replacement. So, Mousavi does have quite a lot of power. Another goal is to really organize his supporters into a force that has to be reckoned with. If he did this as president, then his reforms would be more likely to be allowed through. |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| zzmaikeru | Jun 16 2009, 01:16 PM Post #22 |
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Sel - No, I don't know it. But I think it's pretty obvious that the media's hyping this up and making way more out of it than will actually come of it. There's absolutely no way Mousavi's supporters can make any kind of substantial change. They'll protest, but they can't actually make anything happen. Ahmadinejad and the rest of the Iranian government are far too entrenched for that to happen. And obviously you don't know what a nation is. |
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| aramil | Jun 16 2009, 03:48 PM Post #23 |
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I don't think it'll end up resulting in lasting revolutionary change, but it certainly demonstrates the disconnect in Iranian society that I capitalized on in the RP. Funny how all this talk about Rafsanjani kinda preempted some RP plans I have
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 17 2009, 01:21 AM Post #24 |
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The Creator
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Actually, the problem has been a lack of media hype. Western Media have been criticized for not giving this as much coverage as things like the Hudson River plane crash, which was like drop everything and cover! This, at first, received very little coverage. Hundreds of thousands have protested and the upper echelons of power are being shaken. Any number of things could happen, but what we can say is that something will change. This ranges from Mousavi getting a powerful position below President Ahmadinejad to President to Khameini's ousting to the fall of the Islamic Republic. There are many other paths this could take. This has been described as become a sort of closed-room civil war in the power structure between the Old Guard and the new Ahmadinejadists. Contrary to what many people know, you can no longer really put Ahmadinejad and Khameini on the same side and there could very well be four groups involved: Ahmadinejadists: Want to establish a military dictatorship Khameinists: want to preserve the Islamic Republic as is Anti-Khameinists: Includes Rafsanjani and other clerics, some have not yet spoken on where they are. They may be waiting to see how things unfold. Reformists: This overlaps with the AKs a bit because Mousavi and Khatami are sort of in both camps. The two are clearly allied. From what I have read, Ahmadinejad, and not Khameini (that much) is behind a lot of it. Or Khameini started it and became a tool. What we have not seen is whether the Guard and the Basij will fully back Ahmadinejad against anything. The Army reportedly will not fight the people (1979?). The Basij on motorcycles is rumored to be Arab thugs because Iranians would never beat their fellow nationalists. I cant say I agree either way. The Guard probably would not fully back Ahmadi because people like Rezai, who once lead it, remain a part and do not like Ahmadi. Rafsanjani is "counting his votes" in the Assembly of Experts to see if he can unseat the Supreme Leader. He could put himself there, someone else, or it could become vacant and precede the collapse of the Islamic Republic. So in short, you cannot rely on the old battle lines anymore. Iran has become very dynamic and this so-called "civil war" among the powers could spill over into the country at large. I am trying to avoid the trait I hate most in people: arrogance. But I have read so much about all this before and after the "election" that I think I am qualified to say all this. Mostly I'm reporting on what I have read, not exactly giving my own "fatwa" as it were. In other news, I have literally ODed on Iranian news to the point I was almost seizing and could not read anything. I almost did not come on 21c. Other symptoms include obsession with Islamic honorifics and wanting to adopt one here on 21c. <_< Nation-A group of people with a shared history and culture "Nation of Israel" State-A government, essentially Nation-State-a group of people with a shared history and culture in a defined territory with a government aka Country |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| zzBugs | Jun 17 2009, 08:30 AM Post #25 |
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Mousavi is calling for another rally on Thursday. That's just what the text from MSNBC said... We're going to be looking at a bit of a struggle for a few weeks. Hopefully someone won't assassinate Mousavi. Which would be a bit bad for Ahmadenijad's bunch, since it would immediately look like them. |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 17 2009, 11:58 AM Post #26 |
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The Creator
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I actually invented a word for that: scutum populi. lit. Shield of the People. It means that someone (Mousavi) can go out in public without fear of assassination or harm because it would basically start a revolution. |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| zzskylar | Jun 17 2009, 03:38 PM Post #27 |
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I just hope this won't be another May 35th. |
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| Recon | Jun 17 2009, 04:17 PM Post #28 |
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Very brave of the Football team to do that. Especially as it was broadcast live on Iranian TV. Well done to them! |
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[align=center]Head of State (President): Moncef Marzouki (Congress for the Republic) Head of Government (Prime Minister): Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) Population: 10.6 Million (2012 est.) GDP (Real): $44bn (2012 est.) Organizations: Arab League (AL), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), African Union (AU), International Criminal Court (ICC), International Monetary Fund (IMF,) Non Aligned Movement (NAM), United Nations (UN) & World Trade Organisation (WTO). Strained Relations/War: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Israel /None [/align]
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| Schwerpunkt | Jun 17 2009, 09:59 PM Post #29 |
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Dalek Caan
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Mousavi wants a 'day of mourning.' That's incredibly clever. It ensures his people are protesting peacefully if at all, thereby undermining the "Mousavi's a coup waiting to happen" people and remembering those that died in the protests -- who were, coincidentally, victims of the government, and he's clearly portraying them as such. So he's politicizing their death and using it to out-maneuver the regime. If he manages to portray it as another Tienanmen... As far as the 'battle lines' Sel proposed, I seriously doubt the President and Supreme Leader will break like that. It's in their interest to maintain the status quo, which cannot be done if their camps are no longer aligned. |
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| zzLyly | Jun 17 2009, 11:25 PM Post #30 |
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The whole opposition campaign, the rallies, protests, everything, has been going really well, in my opinion. I'm glad Mousavi's been smart about everything and has managed to keep it mostly peaceful. I doubt anything will really result, but I think this is a great step. |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 18 2009, 03:59 PM Post #31 |
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The Creator
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Ahmadinejad could use Khameini until he's ready to set up his military dictatorship...or none of this could happen. There are a whole lot of unknowns. Right now, you can put them on the same side or 90% overlapping, but Ahmadi definitely has ambitions. |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| zzLyly | Jun 19 2009, 03:38 PM Post #32 |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8108661.stm Ayatollah Khamenei has called for an end to protests, saying "the outcome had to be decided at the ballot box, not on the street." Addressing huge crowds at Tehran University, the ayatollah voiced support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saying the president's views on foreign affairs and social issues were close to his. Responding to allegations of electoral fraud, the ayatollah insisted the Islamic Republic would not cheat. "There is 11 million votes difference," the ayatollah said. "How can one rig 11 million votes?" |
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| Schwerpunkt | Jun 19 2009, 03:55 PM Post #33 |
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Assuming the votes weren't rigged, what Tehran should do is say "here's what we'll do: we'll invite Russians (or someone else) to observe elections, and we'll require private parties donate up to 80% of the cost of holding elections to a public account. If the necessary funding isn't raised, we'll donate that money to social issues. If it is, we'll contribute the balance and prepare for the elections." Of course, nothing prevents them from cheating (again?), but hey. |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 19 2009, 05:03 PM Post #34 |
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The Creator
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ira...n-response.html Flawed Logic of 11 million votes "is too much to rig" |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 19 2009, 07:16 PM Post #35 |
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I'm inclined to believe more that Mousavi legitimately lost, but that doesn't make Fuckamijad the better leader. Look back at 2004 - Except, as a stern personal belief, Kerry was just almost as Conservative and bad as Bush. Yet, still - Bush only won because we knew what he was capable of, and because I think people were afraid to step out of the norm during a War. Kerry and Mousavi in a way represented Hope and Change, but it's what people traditionally felt safer with - though I do believe there could have been some rigging. I don't know. I don't live there. I don't really pay attention to the protesting or the back and forth between the two. So I just really don't entirely know anything to formulate an educated opinion - but out of personal though on the matter, I guess it isn't going to matter either way because it will die down. Though, that doesn't mean I'm not hoping for some kind of revolution.. or Regime change. Maybe the Ayatollah will be smart and realize Iran could be more stable under Mousavi in "peacefuller" terms - but even with Fuckamijad, they're still pretty safe.. he just makes the country look sort of asinine. |
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| Russia (X) | Jun 19 2009, 07:46 PM Post #36 |
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Totally agreed with Hubris. Wouldn't be surprised if it was at least in some part rigged - but I think it probably wasn't all rigged. Some maybe. Who knows? This might be a prelude though to a reformist victory, like with Kerry. |
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 19 2009, 07:49 PM Post #37 |
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Eventually it'll cause the same sentiments that 04 caused for 08 - "We were stupid for electing the same bullshit President" being the strongest sentiment there, that and even the Republicans realized that they were very much unsatisfied with the Right-winged Congress more so than with Bush. Which is my very personal belief to how the Dems took Majority hold in the House and Senate, because not a lot of Republicans really cared that much at the point - and in a way it was sort of a sign of disapproval with how things were being run by us and not just the Dems as well. So, hopefully, what this will cause will be Fuckamijad's eventual downfall in popularity - and, hell, maybe the sentiments being created NOW will cause a Revolution if not have some major change occur by the latest next year. I'm just happy to see the Troll go away. |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 19 2009, 10:05 PM Post #38 |
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The Creator
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This doesnt compare to 2004 at all. The better parallel, if any, is 2008. In the end, there really is no precedent. We keep trying to find a precedent (not really abnormal), but there is none. The vote was rigged. There are just way too many irregularities for it to have not been rigged. There is just no way Ahmadi won 63% of the vote. |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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| Mexico (Hubris) | Jun 19 2009, 10:15 PM Post #39 |
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Senior Warrant Officer
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............ Issues: Palestinians, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran I emphasize something. Palestinians I love you. lol I have no idea what that made me happy. |
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| United States [Sel] | Jun 20 2009, 11:20 AM Post #40 |
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The Creator
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Reports: Sever crackdown by Basij, Guard, and Police. 3000 protested, but others were not able to physically get there. Tear gas and water cannons were used. Demonstrations planned for at night. Helicopters poured acid on people. Mousavi is "prepared for martyrdom". Army reportedly won't fire on protestors. Civil war may happen. Rafsanjani is still the key in my opinion. He may be irrelevant in a few years if he doesn't do anything now (remove the Supreme Leader). |
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[align=center]United States of Trump President DONALD J TRUMP Vice President MIKE PENCE Attorney General JEFF SESSIONS[/align] | |
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9:33 AM Jul 11