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Gunfire Erupts at Pro-Reform Rally in Tehran; Hmm
Topic Started: Jun 15 2009, 01:08 PM (740 Views)
zzJJ
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Who the hell is our Iran??? We need an active Iran cause this can be a great RP opportunity!
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zzmaikeru
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Aramil. He seems to have disappeared. But he had Mousavi win.
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zzJJ
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Oh well then nvm.
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zzLyly
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Jordan [Hubris
 
,19 Jun 2009 21.15.26] ............

Issues: Palestinians, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran

I emphasize something.

Palestinians

I love you. lol

I have no idea what that made me happy.

Thank.. you?

...

Anyway, I personally believe that the votes were rigged. However, I also believe there's a good chance Ahmadenijad legitimately won, with something around 51-54% of the vote. The reason it was rigged then, imo, is because with only that percentage, the election would have gone into a second round, with just the top candidates. This time, whereas the opposition vote was split between 3 candidates the first poll, all those votes would have gone to Mousavi, who would've dominated Ahmadenijad.

That's my belief.
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Russia (X)
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Lyly's probably about right there.

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Mexico (Hubris)
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Palestinian Authority [Lyly
 
,20 Jun 2009 15.06.33]
Jordan [Hubris
 
,19 Jun 2009 21.15.26] ............

Issues: Palestinians, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran

I emphasize something.

Palestinians

I love you. lol

I have no idea what that made me happy.

Thank.. you?

...

Anyway, I personally believe that the votes were rigged. However, I also believe there's a good chance Ahmadenijad legitimately won, with something around 51-54% of the vote. The reason it was rigged then, imo, is because with only that percentage, the election would have gone into a second round, with just the top candidates. This time, whereas the opposition vote was split between 3 candidates the first poll, all those votes would have gone to Mousavi, who would've dominated Ahmadenijad.

That's my belief.

I thought it was funny at the time, because I was retardedly tired. He listed "Palestinians" instead of "Palestine", but I suppose it's right - especially from the viewpoint, because there is no "Palestine" from the viewpoint.

Well, there is no Palestine.. Period.

There's the Government-authority that represents Palestinians, but no official lands I suppose.

Worded incorrectly, just so you know.
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zzLyly
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This was posted on Mousavi's Facebook wall today, not sure what it's a picture of, because the comment was in Persian. Still, I think it looks pretty bad.
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zzmaikeru
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Looks to be plainclothes police officers attacking protesters and getting yelled at by angry women.

Google added a Persian translation option to Google Translate recently, so if you can find the comment again you can get a rough English translation.
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Saudi Arabia [Maikeru
 
,21 Jun 2009 13.02.03] Looks to be plainclothes police officers attacking protesters and getting yelled at by angry women.

Pretty much.

The two leaked votes are Mousavi and Kerroubi on top (I'm doubtful of this, but it would justify a huge rigging) or Mousavi at or near 55% with Ahmadi at like 32%. I can look up the exact numbers if someone wants...
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zzmaikeru
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UK-based Chatham House NGO publishes analysis of the Iran elections. Summary below:

Quote:
 
Executive Summary
Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005
results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior, and from the 2006 census
as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, the following observations
about the official data and the debates surrounding it can be made.

• In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of
more than 100% was recorded.
• At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased
turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion
that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously
silent Conservative majority.
• In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that
Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all
former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former
Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two
groups.
• In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and
Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas.
That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim
that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces
flies in the face of these trends.
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Mexico (Hubris)
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Those "plainclothes police officers" are Militiamen. They're controlled by the Revolutionary Guard, which makes total sense too as to how they were able to run a muck earlier in the week by firing into massive crowds.

The actual Guard, however, is being deployed I here - and they're imposing curfews and such.

It is seeming to be getting worst and worst by the day, but frigateamijad (I wonder how the censor will translate that) might be able to contain all of this.
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Russia (X)
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The militia are called the Basij. They number around 10 million members. They range from athletic 16 year olds to old women, not all are armed. However, in a war the plan would be to arm them all. That way Iran's fighting forces go from a few million (depending on how many active Basij) to 11 million.

Apparently Iran wants one division of Basij for every battalion (about a tenth of the size of a division) of Revolutionary Guard Corps troops. I think I saw it on a Youtube video of an Iranian TV interview with an IRG (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) commander. That was when I was playing as Iran and I wanted to know all of that stuff lol.
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zzLyly
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Hmm... apparently the comment was, roughly "The photo on the first page of many of the world".
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Saudi Arabia [Maikeru
 
,21 Jun 2009 14.34.01] UK-based Chatham House NGO publishes analysis of the Iran elections. Summary below:

I'm reading that now.

Speaking of PDFs, I still have to finish that world crisis report.
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zzmaikeru
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The Iranian Guardian Council has admitted that above-100% turnout was reported in 50 cities, totaling about 3,000,000 votes. This isn't enough to swing the election, however, and is less than the 160 cities Mousavi had alleged over-100% turnout in.

It's interesting that they would do this, here are a couple scenarios as to why(re-posted from a forum dealing specifically with the Iran election):
Quote:
 
1) It could be to help them save face. If they are going to back down and annul the election (after affirming the elections legitimacy and insisting they wouldn't), they need an excuse. If they back down because of what amounts to a mob demanding they do, they lose legitimacy. If they suddenly 'discover' an irregularity and back down, they can say 'my bad yo.'

2) It could be that they're trying to demonstrate that they are fair and objective, but acknowledging some (minor) irregularities, so that you're more likely to take their word when they say that the irregularities would not have affected the outcome.

Both of those possibilities would make sense if the council themselves discovered and brought up the irregularity - and, if that is the case, means they'd have incentive to fabricate those irregularities.

On the other hand, if the irregularity was discovered by an independent (presumably objective) observer, based on the data published by the council, then:

3) they are forced to acknowledge it or deny it. In denying it, they'd have to demonstrate either that the data the independent source is using is not accurate, or that their evaluation is somehow flawed. In relenting, they'd acknowledge the election was flawed.
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Dax
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,21 Jun 2009 15.59.49] The militia are called the Basij. They number around 10 million members. They range from athletic 16 year olds to old women, not all are armed. However, in a war the plan would be to arm them all. That way Iran's fighting forces go from a few million (depending on how many active Basij) to 11 million.

Apparently Iran wants one division of Basij for every battalion (about a tenth of the size of a division) of Revolutionary Guard Corps troops. I think I saw it on a Youtube video of an Iranian TV interview with an IRG (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) commander. That was when I was playing as Iran and I wanted to know all of that stuff lol.

That's a gross over exaggeration. While no one outside of the Iranian government knows the exact figures for the Basij, it is estimated that the number ranges from 100,000 to at maximum 1 Million.
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zzBugs
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United States [Dax
 
,22 Jun 2009 07.17.54]
Pakistan [X
 
,21 Jun 2009 15.59.49] The militia are called the Basij. They number around 10 million members. They range from athletic 16 year olds to old women, not all are armed. However, in a war the plan would be to arm them all. That way Iran's fighting forces go from a few million (depending on how many active Basij) to 11 million.

Apparently Iran wants one division of Basij for every battalion (about a tenth of the size of a division) of Revolutionary Guard Corps troops. I think I saw it on a Youtube video of an Iranian TV interview with an IRG (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) commander. That was when I was playing as Iran and I wanted to know all of that stuff lol.

That's a gross over exaggeration. While no one outside of the Iranian government knows the exact figures for the Basij, it is estimated that the number ranges from 100,000 to at maximum 1 Million.

No, I think he's right. I've seen figures for Iran's paramilitary forces being 11 million.
It'd be just like a reservist force. Like our own National Guard and Reserves, being called up when needed.
Now, the numbers don't matter. Note, that there are old women, and young boys in this. Plus, it's not like all of them would be armed. At most, with a baseball bat or scimitar lol.
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Mexico (Hubris)
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That, and the only way for most Men to get into universities in Iran is to be a part of the Basij.

It's more or less like a big giant Club.
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I still wish Obama would hire youth gangs to harass his opponents...
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Amzi
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Has anyone seen or heard about that Neda lady being shot and killed by an Iranian police officer, here is the video.

WARNING/GRAPHIC CONTENT seriously

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=Neda...=en&emb=0&aq=f#
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Amzi
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I know, :(

Neda has now, according to many news sites, as become 'The Voice of Iran' (Neda means 'voice' in Farsi') and has been hailed for her stand for democracy.
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zzmaikeru
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Yep. Saw the Neda video on the 20th. Very tragic.
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India [Amzi
 
,22 Jun 2009 16.23.35] Has anyone seen or heard about that Neda lady being shot and killed by an Iranian police officer, here is the video.

WARNING/GRAPHIC CONTENT seriously

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=Neda...=en&emb=0&aq=f#

I got suspended from NS once for posting Saddam's hanging, even with a warning.

Don't worry though. As long as you post the warning.
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Mexico (Hubris)
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heh, I went to spend time with my father today who has apparently been watching all this crap like an obsessed tween over The Secret Life of an American Teenager.. and I was quite impressed to realize how much I've been missing out on.

That video is quite.. I don't know, I like it.

The way you just see her slowly go down with the one or two guys holding her, and the way she stares at the cameraman.. it's just the way her eyes look, right before she starts bleeding out her nose and mouth.

It's not even disgusting - it is, more or less, empowering.. and I hope that it helps give the motivation to the people to keep on the protests.

Oh well - Apparently quite a few top leaders of the Revolutionary Guard spoke out against the violence against Protesters, that they are supposed to be there to protect the people and not the Government. I'm not sure how legitimate this is, but maybe it could be signs of a rift high up into the Military as well.

I know the Militia has been known for firing on crowds lately, and Uniformed Policemen as well - not sure if I've read anything about Rev Guardsmen doing it directly.

This could turn very hot and deadly if any more well captured deaths/murders like that occur (that's what it is, really. There is NO warranted reason to fire upon this woman, unless you're just a stupid frigateing prick.. which, of course the officer had to have been, but still).

Erf.

That's just pretty dramatic shit really.

Oh, and Nationstates Administration is week - They're a bunch of frigateing ass holes, too.. and it's more or less a "NSG must WORSHIP us" sort of deal.

They try to hard to be follow "Mods are Gods" routine.

Anyway..

neh.
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