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Pilothouse OOC
Topic Started: Aug 3 2014, 04:59 PM (1,433 Views)
North Korea (Chris)
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OOC discussion.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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I know that post was shit. It'll get better!
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Tanzania (Kaiser Julius II)
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Since I already stated as well as the real life and in-game media believe Mariupol is the next target for Ukrainian separatists, would I not have literally dozens of satellites tracking movements there and notice yet another Russian equipment surge? We seem to notice most if not all their masses and movements. Even with camouflage and distance.

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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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Most of the media reports thus far in the conflict have been fairly sketchy uncertain reports from the Ukrainian government's intelligence I believe, but I would be by no means surprised if US or European satellites were feeding information to that government. I would consider it premature politically to lay on more sanctions when the ceasefire so far has been basically holding, wouldn't you say? ;)

I'll wait on Cloud for the satellite thing, though. He's the final word.
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Tanzania (Kaiser Julius II)
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Debaltseve was a violation of the ceasefire and I'm sure there are other instances. Mariupol would be another flagrant violation. There is already articles that Merkel, Obama, and the British character are talking about new levels of sanctions but they were not specific as to what they were discussing. I think any action on Mariupol would guarantee new sanctions whilst at the moment, they are just under heavy consideration.

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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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Debaltseve was definitely a violation, but it was a violation that happened last quarter (months ago). Mariupol would definitely entail new sanctions, but levying sanctions ahead of action on Mariupol would be a mistake; it would betray the certain aggression of the West for sure... ;)
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Tanzania (Kaiser Julius II)
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I can't help that diplomacy moves slower than warfare due to the nature and organization of these forums, and the West is discussing new sanctions even as we speak @OTL and there has not been an attack on Mariupol yet.

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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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Come on guys, make some substantial posts, not these silly Red October style one-liners.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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I would like to protest the latest post by Cloud Strife in the War in Donbass thread.

Here is a general map of Transnistria: Link

The only Transnistrian territory across the Dniestr is Chitcani. While Russian forces are assaulting Bendery, which is across the river (and a miscalculation since Bendery is apparently in Moldovan government control IRL), they would be obviously notified of the missile strikes and told to withdraw, though surely some forces could be stuck across the river and thus doomed to defeat.

Since Moldovan forces took Tiraspol and are currently attempting to regain control of the city, I feel it is fair to assume that they are at the very least in the Chitcani area outside of Tiraspol (since Bendery is under control of Moldova but under attack by Russian forces, the only other logical staging point for the Moldovans would be the Chitcani area, using bridges to attempt the crossing). Thus I protest that the Russian cruise missiles would hit Transnistrian troops, as nowhere across the entire nation would Transnistrian forces be advancing across the bridges.

Furthermore, I am assuming that the Russian column that I posted about on 27 Feb left Crimea and arrived in Transnistria all in the same post--that was my intention, anyhow. I don't consider this a major advantage, only a means of buying time; they are as doomed as the rest of the Russian and Transnistrian forces should I not take greater action.
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Cloud Strife
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Firstly, Bender is de facto occupied by Transnistria post-1994. If Transnistrian militia were to move against Moldovan positions they would, as you point out, have to cross the river. The majority of Transnistria has been overrun as indicated by previous posts. The only real fighting is for Tiraspol at this point.

At the point where the Transnistrian government is both mobilizing what troops they have left and the Russians are firing cruise missiles to the stop the enemy advance, either a) both are happening at the same time which leads to the situation i've written up or b] no Russian offensive takes place as no one can cross the river in force due the bridges going down or c) Transnistrian militia and Russian advance across the bridges, the bridges are cut by Russian airstrikes and now your forces are pinned between the river and Moldovan forces.

It's also a big assumption that you can remotely coordinate large numbers of militia given the breakdown in any semblance of command and control in Transnistria. However, prior warning or no warning there's no way that Russia can simultaneously blunt the Moldovan advance all along the Dniester, secure Bender to take pressure off of Tiraspol and mount offensives against Moldovan occupation in other areas of Transnistria.

Secondly, I was never given the indication that Ukraine closed the border before or after the Russian reinforcements arrived. Which is why I indicated in my post that it was up to Soy to tell us what happens in respect to that.

If your goal was to buy time, you've bought time until bridging equipment can be brought up. Russian commanders would likely take advantage of the river, now as a barrier, to shift and entrench on the land approaches to the city; making it hard for the Moldovans to take Tiraspol swiftly.
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Saudi Arabia (soysauce)
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Apologies, I missed that note, Russian forces are allowed through,
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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  • It was not my understanding that the majority of Transnistria is overrun aside from forces outside Tiraspol, I will now take this as given.
  • If the only remaining areas are around Tiraspol, then it still would not make sense that Russian cruise missiles hit Transnistrian forces, as nowhere in the region would they be crossing any bridges--Moldova apparently has control of everything west of the Dniestr (Bendery and Chitcani plus Moldova proper) and most of the territory to the east, so why would Transnistrian forces be attempting to cross the river? Of course, I did order Russian attack on Bendery; the news of the missile attacks would get to the Russians, but I'd consider it very plausible and very interesting that Russian troops would be trapped on the western shore of the Dniestr.
  • I do not believe that the Russian government can control or well direct the Transnistrian militia, I agree. However I would assume that as soon as assault began, the Transnistrian reserves would be called up; any Transnistrians in overrun territory with rifles would surely begin some sort of guerilla war as well? Though this may be impossible.
  • I would like to request more specific layout of the geographic situation in these conflicts, if that is possible.
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Cloud Strife
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I agree, more clarity will help avoid misunderstanding in the future. I have a little skill with MS Paint.... hm.

To mobilize and then go on the offensive, they'd have to cross bridges. Otherwise even if the Moldovan advance were stopped within Transnistria, the Moldovans could continue shelling Transnistria with impunity from across the river. Both sides lack air support and most of Transnistria's heavy equipment is now in Moldova's hands because of the initial blitz.

However, I won't quibble further over Russian collateral damage as it doesn't change the the overall outcome thus far.

As for a full blown insurgency, those things usually pop up after the main bit of fighting is done. Stalingrad front, Transnistria is not but the usual local attempts at resistance are surely happening. The ball would be in Russia's court to create a situation where these disparate elements could find an opportunity to coordinate and actually impact how this scenario ends.

So simply things here is where I think things stand in Transnistria;

- Russian forces, with their reinforcements, hold on the capitol at Tiraspol.
- Moldovans control the rest of the break-way republic.
- Moldovans haven't brought up bridging equipment yet, so they can only approach Tiraspol from the landward sides.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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If it means anything, I don't object to the missiles hitting Transnistria on the ground that it killed a few hundred Transnistrians--more for the poltical reasons. The situation is the same in that Tiraspol is surrounded by Moldovans, irregulars, and Ukrainians. You don't need to MS Paint, maybe just say what regions are under control--though we've seemed to have cleared that up. We don't need to keep up the debate, I think we've cleared it up.
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Algeria (Zelron)
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http://i60.tinypic.com/vh5nap.jpg

My attempt at visualizing the conflict thus far based off of Cloud's last post here. If you notice anything out of place, let me know and I could redo it for you guys if you'd like.
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Cloud Strife
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Oh dear, actual work. I'll get to advancing results in the next couple of days. I ask players be restrained in their replies till then.

I also need volunteers to play a Moldovan/Balkan Quintet response and possibly Germany if Nato gets involved in a general war. Any takers should post their interest here and I'll get back to you with details on what you ought to know.

Soy should be up with the Ukrainian response shortly.
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India (Chuck)
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I can play Moldova or Balkan Quintet if need be. I'm willing to do so.
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Indonesia (Kimo)
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Kaiser Julius and I can take joint control of NATO countries. However, we'll take your lead in what NATO will commit.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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I'd be worried about conflict of interest if Chuck played the Balkan Entente or Moldova (Sino-Russian Alliance), same with Kimo about the NATO thing (Well... he's NATO). I think soy could take Moldova in addition to Ukraine quite easily; could we draft Zelron to be the Balkan Entente, and perhaps CWarden for NATO?

EDIT: Clearing would be a good Balkan Entente too.
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India (Chuck)
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As I've stated before, I could care less about what happens in Ukraine and Moldova.
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Cloud Strife
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Eastern European War Comments

Soy should be able to handle Ukraine and Moldova, I don't mind Kimo and KJ RPing NATO minus Balkan Entente members as long as it's clear that any NATO response would be measured appropriately; we're not RPing a nuclear war right? They also out to have a chat with Coloradia in Turkey to sort out who does want.

Clearing if he so chooses, Chuck and possibly Jess and Ford can RP the Balkan Entente; it's not a necessarily pro-Western or pro-Russian group of nations so it doesn't really matter the alignment of their main countries.

I'm going to go through a quick rundown of what's available for deployment should a nation so choose.

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War in the Orient

I can't stress enough we have to slow down the breath of our reactions. The islands and reefs in the South China Sea for the most part can't play host of large concentrations of ships, planes and troops.

Since it's going to become awkward for me to adjudicate and NPC at the same time, Soy is once again overall in charge of the NPC RP in SE Asia but if others want to sign up to control bits of the anti-Chinese coalition, let me know.

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Overall Comments

I think we can be a civil enough community to RP out some conventional warfare. Russia has every reason to shore up its position with force in Eastern Europe or risk losing influence. The West now has the CB required to act if it so chooses. Ditto with China and friends.

MAD still is in play as any escalation into sovereign territory of either power would be met by a strong response. As long as everyone recognizes that only fighting that can take place is in Ukraine/Moldova and the seas around China and Japan, we can carry on. If not, everyone should fall back on diplomacy to avoid the staff not having the headache of sorting arguments out in the future.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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I believe Russian nuclear doctrine is no first-strike unless myself or my allies face the possibility of being eliminated as a sovereign state. Nuclear weapons always makes things trickier, and the rapid escalation in the region over the past year would make the great powers fairly worried and extremely tactful lest further rapid escalation occur. In any case, limited war (which I tried to make public and somewhat obvious in my declaration) should be maintained.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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Sorry for double post: I amended my Senkaku post, as I realized that Vietnam also ordered two Gepard-class frigates that I meant to withhold.
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Indonesia (Kimo)
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I'm just beginning to get into Commonwealth of Nations responses to the various crises. Responses from the European Union (particularly the European Defence Agency), ASEAN (politically), CIS, SCO, etc. are also appropriate.

We attempted to get a host of NATO nations involved (Turkey included) during the Cardiff Summit. We'll be holding another meeting soon however.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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While Belarus is unfortunate, according to soy Ukraine has lost its airspace, even without access to Belorussian airspace, eastern Ukraine is still without air cover. British MANPADs will help, but they can't break Russian air superiority.
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Cloud Strife
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Ukraine has more than MANPADs for air defense; they have long range S-300s, Buks, Tors and a whole slew of short-range point defense systems. They also have anti-ship systems if Ukraine chooses to escalate the naval action in the Black Sea.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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Right, but according to soy a barrage of 450 Kh-15P missiles was enough to eliminate the major pieces of anti-aircraft equipment, and 150 Kh-101 missiles was enough to eliminate the majority of airfields and military aircraft in Ukraine. In addition to that I've got Su-24s on constant patrol to mop up any remaining resistance, Su-25s in close air support against possible targets (vulnerable to MANPADS), and another 150 Kh-101 missile barrage to eliminate the remainder of Ukrainian airbase assets as well as appropriate logistics and ammunition storage facilities.
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Cloud Strife
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So according to Soy the Ukrainian air defense system did nothing? In spite of having the obvious ability to detect and destroy Russian planes within Russian airspace? It looks like i'm going to have to go through what's happened with a fine tooth comb.

I've also been thinking, how many missiles does Russia have? Or even Vietnam? This stuff doesn't just grow on trees.
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Cloud Strife
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I think the time's come where we need to draw up some detailed ORBATs, i'm giving players till Monday 12pm EST to throw in what they want to throw in the Ukraine War then i'm going to sum up the ORBATs and sort through what can and cannot be deployed. This is to avoid the scenario where everyone starts mindlessly throwing in everything and the kitchen sink just to win.

I'll be going over my initial military aid list as Germany as well to make sure I haven't donated things that don't exist in reserve. I suggest other people do the same with the aid they've already given or are preparing to give.
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Saudi Arabia (soysauce)
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Em, I know nothing about air defense at all so I might have made a bit of a mess of the whole thing. I had wrongly assumed that Ukranian air defenses were in poor condition before the war and had declined even further, but looking at it now it looks like they are fairly strong. I could try to clear things up but it might be better if someone else clarified things for the new Ukraine player before he takes over. Obviously if Ukraine could shoot down the Russians before they destroyed the airbases then they would, perhaps the whole aerial theater needs retconned and rewritten to reflect that.

As for missiles - Vietnam threw most of its inventory at the Chinese, the attack was meant to be a shock and awe operation so the overkill was necessary. They can't easily repeat what they did but they shouldn't need to.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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I'd actually disagree and say they were strong but have declined since 1991. The most capable SAMs Ukraine has are the S-300PS and S-300V1, the first of which has a maximum engagement range of 80 kilometers and the second, 100 kilometers. They were engaged with a wide barrage of missiles with a 300 km range.

According to Wiki, the majority of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft force is in storage or in service but in poor condition, and none of their equipment can out-range a Kh-15P missile. It's plausible that the air defenses might destroy some of the incoming missiles, but it's implausible that they would destroy the bombers. The SEAD aircraft later on, perhaps, but not the initial barrage, which was overkill for a reason.
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Cloud Strife
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The conventional versions of the Kickback don't have 300km range. There are specific land attack derivatives like the Kingbolt but they don't cruise at Mach 5 like the tactical nuclear original. If I had to re-do the action i'd probably reduce damage inflicted by 2/3rds. You can't underestimate a working anti-air network even if is Soviet legacy. I'm fine with letting the results stand since RP on both sides is predicated on it now.

Vietnam's attack has done it's job but I guess since China is doubling down on crushing Hanoi there's always the possibility of dragging neo-SEATO into the fight; Malaysia has a pretty nice inventory of anti-ship missiles.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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I would like an update on the military situation in Ukraine effective after this post. No military aid had reached Ukrainian hands at this time, nor has the Ukrainian military been trained in the equipment at this time.

I need to know the military situation before the Quintet force was formed and before the Ukrainian military (under our new member) has began an organized resistance.
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Ukraine (Cesare)
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Russia (Kartozeichner)
14 Mar 2015 13.13.23
I would like an update on the military situation in Ukraine effective after this post. No military aid had reached Ukrainian hands at this time, nor has the Ukrainian military been trained in the equipment at this time.

I need to know the military situation before the Quintet force was formed and before the Ukrainian military (under our new member) has began an organized resistance.

This. I actually had no idea what the results of that last offensive were and would fully want to change things if there was a major frontline shift like Crimea being united with Odessa on the land.
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United States (Grigor)
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Ideally, we can get some sort of resolution at Hiroshima so that we can sort our economies the fuck out. The Worlds Economy went from $73 Trillion USD globbally, to around $59 Trillion USD(by my estimates) from the war in Europe, and Southeast Asia.
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Germany (Kartozeichner)
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If I were RPing the conflict, I'd imagine a static front on Odessa with rapid advances on Zaporizhia and the Kharkiv Oblast, as well as continued general advance of Novorossiyan forces. It's important to know since I'm looking at the possible encirclement of a huge amount of Ukrainian forces.

By the way, the Military Balance 2015 has the Ukrainian Army at 64,000 active duty, with 5,500 VDV active duty and 33,000 National Guardsmen active duty, with 1,000,000 reserve personnel across all branches.
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Cloud Strife
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Russians hold on to an area around Odessa and are trying to advance from occupied Kharkiv in the north and the situation in Donbass remains fluid. I can't really judge if Russia is capable of a rapid advance when whatever infrastructure, like rail or highways, are funneling any troops towards what I assume are heavily prepared Ukrainian positions.

The economics of this war are starting to become a bit iffy. Russia's going to run out of money, not sure where Ukraine is getting all their money; nationalization tends to scare away investors.

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Ukraine (Cesare)
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We have some shady mass hype things going on, plus were' sort of dodging the need for liquidity by the new economic bureaucracy that directs materiel without then need for cash transfers. It's like a vertically integrated business. So far we've sold Antonov, gotten a grant from Japan, which puts some billions in the treasury, and sold shamelessly a lot of bonds to foreigners who don't like Russians. We ordered not to nationalize anything. Just since the owners of Russian businesses are in a country at war with us, we're running but not owning them until the war's over. No other businesses are nationalized.
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Cloud Strife
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Firstly you need to officially transact business in a bilateral meetings thread; it's okay if you line up your ducks in PM but I can't find where you've done this deal with Japan, it could be buried in an existing post but it's not easy to find.

Secondly I can't find the rhyme or reason why anyone would buy up assets in a warzone. If Russia wins, Japanese firms are guaranteed their recent plant acquisitions are going to be seized. I think Japan is going after intellectual property but this deal makes no sense. I could be wrong, I ask other mods to chime in.

Thirdly that's nationalization, playing semantics won't fool the business community.
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Ukraine (Cesare)
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Japan put it in the newspaper. The purpose of the deal is more to help Ukraine become liquid in the short-term than to help either side or have profits before a couple years.

From mobilizing our foreign service for fundraising we should at least be able to get some bond purchases, even if the outlook is bad. Right now the government is heading towards total war mobilization and we have $24 billion foreign reserves 2014, without having paid for any imported equipment yet, it's all donations or leases. Domestically, liquidity is under our control because currency is.
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